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Other than some small fluctuations, mortgage rates haven't moved much in recent weeks. Average 30-year mortgage rates have remained relatively flat so far this week, mostly hovering within the 6.35% to 6.40% range, according to Zillow data.
But that could change depending on some upcoming economic data releases and the commentary coming out of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Mortgage rates are expected to go down in 2024 as the economy balances out and the Fed is able to start lowering the federal funds rate. But mortgage rates aren't likely to start dropping until the Fed gives us a better idea of when it might start cutting its benchmark rate. And so far, officials have indicated they're willing to take their time and make sure inflation is coming down to an acceptable level.
But some data set to be released this week and next week should help the Fed get a clearer picture of how the economy is trending.
On Thursday, we'll get the latest gross domestic product numbers, which will show how much the economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2023. Then, the personal consumption expenditures price index data for December comes out on Friday. The PCE price index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Next Tuesday, as Fed officials gather to discuss their next policy move, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released.
Depending on how all this data shakes out, we could see mortgage rates experience some volatility in response to these releases. And next Wednesday, when the Fed announces its rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds his press conference, we could see rates trend up or down depending on when markets believe the Fed might start cutting rates.
Essentially, there's still some more cooling that needs to happen in the economy before Fed officials will feel comfortable lowering the federal funds rate. The data released over the next week will tell us whether or not that cooling is happening.
If it is, we could see the Fed cut rates as soon as March, and mortgage rates could trend down a bit in anticipation of that. Otherwise, we might not get a cut until May or later, keeping mortgage rates near their current levels or even pushing them back up a bit.
Today's mortgage rates
| Mortgage type | Average rate today |
This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow
Today's refinance rates
| Mortgage type | Average rate today |
This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use ourfree mortgage calculatorto see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments:
Mortgage Calculator
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$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
More details
Total paid
$418,177
Principal paid
$275,520
Interest paid
$42,657
Ways you can save:
- Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
- Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
- Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By clicking on "More details," you'll also see how much you'll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023.
But many forecasts expect rates to fall this year now that inflation has been coming down. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%, a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022.
For homeowners looking toleverage their home's valueto cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — ahome equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you're borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you'd do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC ratesare relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren't likely to see home prices drop this year. In fact, they'll probably rise.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.20% in 2024 and 0.30% in 2025, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.10% increase in 2024 and a 3.30% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates have since eased, removing some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely push prices up.
What Happens to House Prices in a Recession?
House prices usually drop during a recession, but not always. When it does happen, it's generally because fewer people can afford to purchase homes, and the low demand forces sellers to lower their prices.
How Much Mortgage Can I Afford?
A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much house you can afford. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.
Typically, experts recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
The lower your rate, the more you'll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.
Mortgage Reporter
Molly Grace is a reporter at Insider. She covers mortgage rates, refinance rates, lender reviews, and homebuying articles for Personal Finance Insider. Before joining the Insider team, Molly was a blog writer for Rocket Companies, where she wrote educational articles about mortgages, homebuying, and homeownership. You can reach Molly at mgrace@businessinsider.com, or on Twitter @mollythegrace.
As an expert in the field of mortgage rates and real estate, I bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to provide insights into the dynamics influencing the housing market. My expertise is not only rooted in a thorough understanding of economic indicators but also in the ability to interpret data trends and make informed projections.
The current scenario, as outlined in the provided article, emphasizes the stability of average 30-year mortgage rates, hovering within the 6.35% to 6.40% range according to Zillow data. The anticipation of a potential decrease in mortgage rates in 2024 is contingent upon the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate. The article highlights the cautious approach of Fed officials, who are closely monitoring economic indicators and inflation levels before making any rate-cutting decisions.
Crucial data releases, such as the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the fourth quarter of 2023, the personal consumption expenditures price index data for December, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, are expected to play a significant role in shaping the Fed's perspective on the economy. The article emphasizes the potential impact of these data points on mortgage rates, suggesting that volatility may occur in response to the releases.
The article also touches upon the use of a mortgage calculator to assess how today's interest rates would affect monthly payments. It provides a breakdown of estimated monthly payments, total paid, principal paid, and interest paid. Additionally, the article offers insights into potential savings strategies, such as making a higher down payment or lowering the interest rate.
Furthermore, the piece delves into the projection for mortgage rates in 2024, indicating a potential decline after a period of increases in 2022 and 2023. The connection between inflation rates and mortgage rate trends is highlighted, with a focus on the Consumer Price Index as a key metric.
For those considering leveraging their home's value, the article introduces the concept of a home equity line of credit (HELOC) as an option, particularly in the context of waiting for mortgage rates to ease. Current HELOC rates are noted to be relatively low compared to other loan options.
The article extends beyond mortgage rates to touch upon the outlook for home prices. It suggests that, despite easing mortgage rates, home prices are expected to rise in the coming year according to projections from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association. Factors such as high mortgage rates and low housing supply are discussed as influencing market dynamics.
In conclusion, my expertise in mortgage rates and real estate allows me to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing the housing market, from economic indicators and Federal Reserve decisions to data releases and their impact on mortgage rates and home prices.
